Tuesday, June 2, 2009

My final thoughts before election day

I haven't posted here as much as I'd like to have, but rest assured that I've been keeping a very close eye on the election campaign and trying to make as unbiased a decision as possible. With the campaign nearly over, I thought I'd speak up and give my take on things before the vote.

Based on what I've seen, I've come to the conclusion that we're almost assured of an NDP minority Government. I've seen the public polls released by the CBC and I've seen several internal polls, including one out today from the Liberal Party whose results I'm not at liberty to share. However, suffice it to say that the NDP aren't in as good a position as they would have us believe. When the chips are counted, I think Nova Scotians are looking for change and it appears that change will be the New Democrats. However, I think there's enough caution in giving the NDP control that they will be given a very tentative minority.

That having been said, I will conclude with a few changes to the predictions I released earlier in the election:

Cape Breton West - I'd like to change my prediction to a Liberal pickup. Despite Rodney's home being in Cape Breton and Alfie being a prominent member of the Legislature, I think the PC's have fallen hard enough that this seat is turning red.

Dartmouth North - I've been going door to door in this riding and I've seen the reaction at the doors and heard the things people say. Jim has been a counted-on figure in Albro Lake-Harbourview and people like him and trust him. It'll be a close race, but I'd like to change my prediction to having Jim pick this seat up.

Dartmouth East - Joan Massey has been invisible versus a HIGHLY popular Councillor. Younger is a lock here.

Halifax Citadel - Sable Island - It's a bit more of a stretch then the other three above, but I genuinely feel the Liberal Party has been strong enough here that they stand a good chance of winning.

Overall, I see a huge shift for the Liberals. My final prediction is going to be:

NDP - 25
Liberal - 19
PC - 8

Take that for what you will.

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