What is up his sleeve?

I've proudly stood beside Michael Ignatieff since he became leader and supported his decisions. I always felt that, while I may not have agreed or understood all of them, they were all, clearly, for the greater good.

Now, I can feel myself starting to doubt him, which is worrisome. I wonder if he really is aiming for a resolution that will benefit his, and my party.

Now, don't get me wrong; I'm not buying into the media perspective that Michael ought to pack his bags and get ready to leave. I'm, instead, basing my perspective on the fact that he could have approached this whole kerfuffle in a different way and made himself look strong as a result. Instead, he puffed himself up and then backed off.

I really hope he has a plan for the fall, because I don't know where else to put my vote.

Let's bring 'er down!

While Michael Ignatieff spends the rest of today and part of tomorrow contemplating whether to put the Harper Government out of its misery or not, I'd like to add my voice to the vocal, but unfortunately small, group of people who want him to send Harper packing.

Far from selfish reasons, Ignatieff can cite everything from the fact that the Conservatives have not demonstrated that their stimulus money is getting out the door, to the Raitt affair, to the Conservative Party's generally abusive attitude toward anybody who crosses them. Fact is, Harper is a mean bully and it won't take long or much to convince Canadians that he doesn't deserve the honour of being their Prime Minister anymore.

To Mr. Ignatieff, bring 'er down!

NDP Majority Government

NDP: 31
Lib: 11
PC: 10

You don't really get more decisive then that, I suppose.

Nova Scotians voted for change tonight, and that change is coming from the New Democratic Party. I can't say I'm not disappointed, obviously, and I can't say that I don't feel wary about my province's future under the orange regime. However, he clearly wanted it more and so I congratulate him.

Beyond that, though, I'd say the Liberal Party also won a strong victory here, because, in his first campaign as leader, Stephen McNeil managed to take his party to Official Opposition status and, despite a clear wave of NDP support, he managed to keep all Liberal MLA's in place and pick up two new seats, one from the Conservatives and one from the NDP. For the first time in 6 years, Dartmouth is no longer 100% NDP orange. That's a victory right there.

In my own riding of Dartmouth North, the NDP's Trevor Zinck beat the Liberal candidate, Jim Smith. I worked hard for Jim and I'm sorry that he lost, but it was a fair battle and Trevor is a great guy and will, hopefully, be made a Minister in the new NDP Government; something he definitely deserves.

Overall, I'm upset, but not miserable by the results.

You have 4 years to make things right in Nova Scotia, Darrell; don't f*** it up!

My final thoughts before election day

I haven't posted here as much as I'd like to have, but rest assured that I've been keeping a very close eye on the election campaign and trying to make as unbiased a decision as possible. With the campaign nearly over, I thought I'd speak up and give my take on things before the vote.

Based on what I've seen, I've come to the conclusion that we're almost assured of an NDP minority Government. I've seen the public polls released by the CBC and I've seen several internal polls, including one out today from the Liberal Party whose results I'm not at liberty to share. However, suffice it to say that the NDP aren't in as good a position as they would have us believe. When the chips are counted, I think Nova Scotians are looking for change and it appears that change will be the New Democrats. However, I think there's enough caution in giving the NDP control that they will be given a very tentative minority.

That having been said, I will conclude with a few changes to the predictions I released earlier in the election:

Cape Breton West - I'd like to change my prediction to a Liberal pickup. Despite Rodney's home being in Cape Breton and Alfie being a prominent member of the Legislature, I think the PC's have fallen hard enough that this seat is turning red.

Dartmouth North - I've been going door to door in this riding and I've seen the reaction at the doors and heard the things people say. Jim has been a counted-on figure in Albro Lake-Harbourview and people like him and trust him. It'll be a close race, but I'd like to change my prediction to having Jim pick this seat up.

Dartmouth East - Joan Massey has been invisible versus a HIGHLY popular Councillor. Younger is a lock here.

Halifax Citadel - Sable Island - It's a bit more of a stretch then the other three above, but I genuinely feel the Liberal Party has been strong enough here that they stand a good chance of winning.

Overall, I see a huge shift for the Liberals. My final prediction is going to be:

NDP - 25
Liberal - 19
PC - 8

Take that for what you will.

Add a caption

Burma: How can this even happen?

I've always prided myself on being "up" on world news. I've always tried to be aware of the what's, how's, why's, and where's of all the important things that have gone on in the world, so that I can live my life as knowledgable as possible. I've never claimed to know everything, but there's one thing that always confused me.

How can a think like Burma/Myanmar happen?

What I mean is how can a nation hold an election that results in a majority government for a specific party, completely disregard the results and lock up the party's leader for the last 19 years, and still be allowed to exist as a nation?

Maybe I'm missing something, but in the year 2009 how can it be possible that a country can keep the legitimate leader of a country locked up for nearly two decades and the world does nothing?

I'm never one to support unilateral occupation, but the US invaded Iraq on the suspicion of doing something wrong, yet Burma blatantly flaunts the fact that they are keeping the Prime Minister-elect of the country under house arrest, yet nothing is done. The UN does nothing, the US does nothing, the world does nothing.

Why?

I must be seriously missing something, because if Stephen Harper held an election where the Liberal Party won a majority government and he opted, rather than hand over power, to lock Michael Ignatieff in at Stornoway and arrest every Liberal MP, then Canada would likely erupt in revolution.

Can somebody please explain to me how this general gets away with doing what he's doing, and nobody does anything about it?

Seriously!

NS Liberal Party: The middle ground

I've tried, during this campaign, to view the options as unbiased as possible. After all, as mentioned in a previous post, I have respect for the NDP and their agenda, and consider one of their MLA's a personal friend. However, I made the choice to join the Liberal Party of Canada (and, by virtue of that, Nova Scotia) in 2006 and have not felt the urge to turn back since.

So, after having heard the rhetoric, read the platforms (the PC haven't released one yet as of this post, but they've let us know the just of what they'd do) and talked to several of the candidates around the HRM, I've come to the conclusion that the Liberal Party of Nova Scotia is indeed the party that presents the best choice for Nova Scotians. Now, granted it's not exactly earth-shattering that a Liberal blogger would endorse the Liberal Party, but consider that, despite my affiliation, I'm prepared to give people the benefit of the doubt in most cases. I'll temper my endorsement, in fact, by stating that the NDP likely won't do a horrible job, should they win government.

I say "should" rather than "when" because, despite my endorsement at the beginning of this thing, I still see this as a 3-way race. MacDonald hasn't done much to justify that, mind, but stranger things have happened before. My feeling is that, if he can convince Nova Scotians enough that the NDP bogeyman is too risky, he can bring enough wanderers back to the Tory camp to scratch out a bare minority government. It's unlikely, but possible.

On the other hand, Darrell Dexter and the NDP have the momentum here and so they seem most likely to hit the finish line in first place at this point. They've been pretty low-key so far, keeping their head down and riding the wave of PC resentment. It's worked for them so far, but it also leaves them open to being outdone.

So, what we have here are two parties whose main platform is built around, "We aren't the other guy." and I think this is a great advantage for Stephen McNeil and the Liberals. They've stayed mostly out of the back-and-forth and actually made their campaign about ideas and issues, rather than finger-pointing. They've made a point of running a positive campaign, refraining from any attack ads and haven't been afraid to put forward ideas that are new, different and, possibly, open to criticism. Instead of the "Risky NDP/Risky PC" games from the "frontrunners", Liberal ads focus on McNeil's smiling face and an actual plan for the province. That's why I believe the Liberal Party will become the Official Opposition after the smoke clears, perhaps even coming up the middle to manage a minority government; they've been the only party who has stood on its own, instead of basing itself around what the others are not. While the NDP and PC are playing games, the Liberals are talking about ideas. That's not to say that maybe there's some merit to the concerns about the NDP taking charge during these hard economic times (remember Ontario? [sorry, Bob!]).

To put it in one line: the Liberal Party is an option for those who are tired of the PC, but don't trust the NDP.

Round 1 to McNeil

The general consensus from last night's provincial leader's debate seems to be that Stephen McNeil was the winner by virtue of the fact that he exceeded all expectations, as well as the fact that he chose to articulate policy rather than get into attacks on his opponents. He was clear, concise and explained what he would do and how. If I have one complaint it's that he was far too wooden; he needed to move his arms more, smile and show some personality.

Dexter did well enough as well, coming across as Premier-esque, although he stumbled several times and made a few cheap shots. Dexter isn't the best talker, which isn't a horrible thing but it definitely is a liability during a debate. As I've said before, I like Dexter and I like many of the NDP's ideas and intentions, but I don't feel the NDP are a realistic party to be in government. They do well in the role of the "social conscience" of the Liberal or Conservative government currently in power wherever they are, but in government they are destined to fail.

MacDonald did very poorly. Rather than give us a reason why we should re-elect the PC's, he just kept up the "NDP=bad" rhetoric. After the twentieth time, it got tiring. It had me thinking, "Okay, fine; the NDP suck. But what is YOUR plan?" He looked nervous, and the poll released earlier that day showing the NDP with a 8 point lead on the PC's probably didn't help matters. MacDonald was given a chance to show us why we should trust him for another 4 years and he didn't do that. In fact, if anything, he gave us more reasons why we shouldn't.

There's one more debate coming up and it'll be MacDonald's last chance to show us why he deserves another shot, Dexter's last chance to explain to us why an NDP Government isn't going to be the bogeyman that everybody paints them as, and McNeil's last chance to show us that there is, indeed, a 3rd choice.

McNeil and the Liberals have the most room for movement and they know it.

I currently predict an NDP Government (likely still a minority) with a Liberal Official Opposition and the PC's in 3rd party status.

Check around the 'net and you'll see most people agree with me.

Happy Birthday, Your Majesty

I'm in the process of moving, plus doing some soul-searching lately, however I'm still here.

I'll issue a longer post soon on my continuing thoughts on the NS Election, but I did want to take this opportunity to wish all Canadians a Happy Victoria Day and wish a very happy birthday to Her Majesty, the Queen (even though it's not really her birthday)! I hope all Canadians, especially monarchists like myself, take the opportunity to recognize the positive effects our Monarchy has had for Canada. It was Queen Victoria I who officially recognized the Confederation of our country in 1867 and so we must remain grateful to her and to all of her successors for representing our country with honour, with dignity and with respect.

And as we count down the days to our nation's 142nd Dominion Day (or Canada Day, as its known to most, and Moving Day as it's known in Quebec *chuckle*) on July 1st, we should remember how lucky we are to have a Queen like Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II.

Long May She Reign!

Be back soon.

Dartmouth North and my personal struggle

This election is about who can provide the best vision for Nova Scotia to help us get through tough economic times, i.e. do we stay the course with the government we currently have, or do we roll the dice with another party and see if they can do better? This election is also about whether Nova Scotians are truly prepared to give the reins of command over to the NDP, a party that has never formed a provincial government east of Ontario, or whether it sticks with the Liberal/Conservative option that the majority of Canada's provinces, and Canada itself, uses.

Beyond those two major things to consider, or actually in addition to it, the people in each riding, as usual, have to consider whether to stick with its representative on polling day or un-elect them and give the seat to somebody else. With that having been said, there are a lot of races during the 2008 Nova Scotia election that many consider "ones to watch". People are particularly interested in those whose PC incumbent isn't running again, such as Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley or Truro-Bible Hill. Will they elect another PC incumbent, or will they give the NDP or Liberal Party a chance to hold the seat? Then there's the riding of Cumberland North where the incumbent was ejected from the party due to scandal and is running as an Independent. Will he win re-election on his personal popularity, or will they elect a party member to replace him? Many are also interested in Halifax Clayton Park which remains the only non-NDP riding in the Halifax/Dartmouth area. Will the Liberals hold on, or will the NDP finally sweep the area?

A riding that many may not think would be one to watch is my own riding of Dartmouth North. A riding that is comprised of the large industrial park in Burnside, many middle-income homes by the Albro Lake beach and MicMac Mall, a few upper middle income areas, and a large, LARGE amount of lower-income rentals. In fact, I would venture to say that the biggest stand-out for Dartmouth North is the latter. The riding has, for the past 11 years, been represented by the NDP, currently in the form of Trevor Zinck.



Trevor is, without a doubt, a fantastic guy. I met him for the first time when he was the Assistant Manager for the Shopper's Drug Mart on Wyse Road. At the time, I was NDP and he and I both served on the Dartmouth North NDP Riding Association Executive. His passion for social justice and the needs of the community were undeniable. He served on the District 9 Citizen's Association and volunteered at the local food bank, where I was, at the time, an occasional visitor due to money troubles. When the MLA at the time retired, Trevor sought and won the nomination to run in the next election for the NDP and, in the 2006 election, he easily won the seat. Since then, he's been a phenomenal MLA, but more than that. When I needed his help or guidance, he never hesitated to return my calls or stop by for a chat. When I was down and out, he'd offer whatever help, tangible or otherwise, that he could muster. When my daughter's toys got stolen by a rotten landlord and we held a car wash to raise money for her to buy new ones, Trevor attended with two cars for us to wash. I consider Trevor to be a personal friend of mine and I'm sure he'd support that belief. I always told Trevor that he'd make a great Minister of Community Services (the NS department that handles EI and social assistance) given his strong passion for helping out the most vulnerable.

Since 2006, though, I've left the NDP and found a new home with the Liberal Party of Canada. The reasons are many and quite detailed, but centre on the fact that the NDP has shown, in many cases, to no longer stand for the things that I believe in. Over the years, I've unquestioningly fought for NDP principles, even when I had personal reservations. I've done what I felt was right, while feeling that I was fighting for a lost cause. The last straw for me was when Jack Layton chose to bring down the Martin Government and actively help Stephen Harper win power. A man who claims to fight for social justice helped to elect one of the most right-wing governments in Canadian history. At first, I joined the Liberal Party out of protest, but then I found myself feeling like I was finally part of a cause that I could support. The Liberal Party has allowed me to fight for social justice combined with a strong desire for economic accountability. Also, from a very personal standpoint, the Liberal Party is the party that fights the strongest for the causes of Jewish people and the defense of the State of Israel. On Passover, Michael Ignatieff issued a personal message on the Liberal website; the NDP, not so much. That spoke volumes to me.

But I digress...

Dartmouth North has been well-served provincially by the NDP for over a decade, and a large portion of it, the municipal district 9 (Albro Lake-Harbourview), has been equally well-served for several years by the local Councillor, Jim Smith.



Jim is, like Trevor, a strong believer in social justice and doing what he can to help out the less fortunate. He was elected to City Council in 2000 and re-elected twice, both times on his record of standing up for District 9's causes. I first met Jim, interestingly enough, at the same time that I met Trevor, as Trevor, Jim and I all served on the Dartmouth North NDP Executive (Jim and Trevor as Vice Presidents and I as a Member at Large). Just like Trevor, I was always struck by the attention that Jim gives to the residents of the area, especially given their unique needs as predominately low-income renters. When Council approved a fare increase for the public transit system in Halifax, Jim was one of the few Councillors who voted against it; he did so on the grounds that low-income Haligonians like those in his district already find it hard sometimes to come up with bus fare and a further increase would exaserbate that. In every way, he is a true man of the people. When I was down and out, just like Trevor, Jim always returned my calls and helped out where needed. He was always available, both in person and on the phone, to chat with about whatever I needed. And, just like Trevor, I consider Jim a personal friend and an invaluable representive for the area.

Around the same time as me, I suppose, Jim also left the NDP and joined the Liberal Party. I'm sure there's a story there, but I haven't heard it. What I do know, though, is that in the Nova Scotia election of 2009, Trevor Zinck's Liberal opponent in Dartmouth North is Councillor Jim Smith.

Two awesome representatives, both personal friends, are running in Dartmouth North and, beyond me, there are many who appreciate what both men have done for the area. This is definitely a race to watch. The advantage still goes to Trevor as the incumbent, but I believe Jim stands a good shot. And, despite my Liberal affiliation, I would be proud to live in a riding representated by either Trevor or Jim and the riding would be lucky to have either.

More than a blip on the radar

So, with the NS election nearly done its first week, we're seeing the Conservatives already trying to mud-sling by suggesting that the Liberal Party is a non-entity. The funny part is that the PC Government started this camapaign in last place, or counting the MOE on the latest poll, in a tie with the Liberal Party. In as unbiased a way as possible, I've assessed the election so far and declare that it is, in fact, the PC's that are the non-entity. While Rodney was jumping on trampolines, Stephen McNeil and the Liberal Party have been outlining their agenda on business taxation, renewable energy and will be releasing their plan on healthcare shortly.

Then, we have the NDP. Their big plan for healthcare reform in the province is to hire an advisor to come up with a plan for healthcare reform. Seriously. To quote the Liberal leader:

That’s not what Nova Scotians are looking for when it comes to health care," Mr.
McNeil told reporters Thursday. "They’re looking to access health care professionals."

Now, don't get me wrong; the NDP's platform isn't awful. In fact, most of it is pretty good and their intentions are good, I suppose. In the end, I hope for a Liberal Government with an NDP Opposition, but I'd settle for the opposite if I had to.

I just hope Nova Scotians recognize the uselessness of the MacDonald Government and firmly boot the fiddle-playing Premier down to 3rd Party status.

All in all, a good first week for the Liberals. And that is for ding dang!

And they're off!

So, as many have heard the Nova Scotia election was officially called today as Lieutenant-Governor, Mayann Francis, dissolved the Nova Scotia Legislature. We will cast our ballots on June 9th after a 35-day campaign.

I, for one, am quite excited about the upcoming campaign. It promises to be very interesting campaign that will focus heavily on which party is best able to guide Nova Scotia through the economic duldrums faced by the province, the country and, indeed, the world.

What I find particularly interesting is that, in the midst of this economic uncertainty, polls are showing that a plurality of Nova Scotians are prepared to put their faith in the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party - the NDP being a party that history hasn't shown is the best one to lead provinces through recessions (sorry, Bob). The PC Government has been watching their fortunes flailing and have been conducting a smear campaign against Darrell Dexter's NDP for a number of weeks now. The Liberals, meanwhile, seem to have been just trying to get in a word edgewise.

As a Liberal, it's something of a disappointment to see the Liberal Party with no chance, short of a miracle, of winning Government during this election. It disappoints me still more that the NDP here is actually taken seriously as a potential governing party, let alone on the very threshold of winning Government. Nova Scotia remains the sole Atlantic Canadian province where the NDP is taken seriously, with New Brunswick and Newfoundland & Labrador electing their one and only NDP Member each during their last elections and PEI with a better chance of electing a Communist to their Legislative Assembly than a New Democrat. Yet here in the Bluenose Province, the NDP is a serious contender. Go figure.

Not that some of their ideas aren't good. I've always supported the idea of public auto insurance and, when I was down and out, it was the NDP MLA in my riding who helped me with my welfare application and working my way through their hoops to recieve benefits. I'm not opposed to their ideas, but I feel their place is as a social conscience and not a government.

So, happy Election Day!

New Leader, New Logo, New Era!

I like the snazzy new logo, and I definitely like the "new" leader, and Canada's next Prime Minister: Michael Ignatieff.

As I mentioned in my first post, I had definite issues with Ignatieff when he first ran for leader. Heck, I thought he was a huge threat to every Liberal value that I believed in and I hoped against hope that he wouldn't win.

Now, I am behind him in a big way and would gladly go on the hustings, helping to elect his brand in my riding during the next election. I only wish I could have been in Vancouver to hear his speech in person, as it was simply awe-inspiring via YouTube. Go Michael Go!

On another note, it occurs to me that my current NS election predictions place the NDP in a majority government. At this point, I am actually prepared to go that route, but we'll see how things turn out.

More more predictions

Kings-Hants

Hants East
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: John MacDonell - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Hants West
PC: Chuck Porter - incumbent
Liberal: Paula Lunn
NDP: Barbara Gallagher
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Kings North
PC: Mark Parent- incumbent
Liberal: Shirley Fisher
NDP: Jim Morton
Grn: Anna-Maria Gallante-Ward

Prediction: PC Hold


Kings South
PC: David Morse - incumbent
Liberal: Paula Howatt
NDP: Ramona Jennex
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Kings West
PC: Chris Palmer
Liberal: Leo Glavine - incumbent
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


South Shore and the Valley


Chester-St. Margaret's
PC: Judy Streatch - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Denise Peterson-Rafuse
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Lunenburg
PC: unknown
Liberal: Rick Welsford
NDP: Pam Birdsall
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC hold


Lunenburg West
PC: Carolyn Bolivar-Getson - incumbent
Liberal: Mark Furey
NDP: Gary Ramey
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Queens
PC: unknown
Liberal: Wayne Henley
NDP: Vicki Conrad - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold



Shelburne
PC: Eddie Nickerson
Liberal: Darian Huskilson
NDP: Sterling Belliveau - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Argyle
PC: Chris d'Entremont - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Melvin Huskins
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC Hold


Yarmouth
PC: Richard Hurlburt - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC Hold


Annapolis
PC: unknown
Liberal: Stephen McNeil - incumbent
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


Clare
PC: unknown
Liberal: Wayne Gaudet - incumbent
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


Digby-Annapolis
PC: unknown
Liberal: Harold Theriault Jr. - incumbent
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold

More Predictions

Central and North Nova Scotia

Antigonish
PC: Angus MacIsaac - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Maurice Smith
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup



Guysborough-Sheet Harbour
PC: Ron Chisholm - incumbent
Liberal: Lloyd Hines
NDP: Jim Boudreau
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Pictou Centre
PC: Pat Dunn - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Ross Landry
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC hold


Pictou East
PC: J. Ed MacDonald
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Clarrie MacKinnon - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold



Pictou West
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Charlie Parker - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
PC: Brooke Taylor - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Gary Burrill
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC Hold


Colchester North
PC: Karen Casey - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC Hold


Cumberland North
PC: Keith Hunter
Liberal: Brent Noiles
NDP: Brian Skabar
Grn: unknown
Ind: Ernest Fage - incumbent

Prediction: PC pickup


Cumberland South
PC: Murray Scott - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Brian Tabor
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC hold (safest PC seat in the province)


Truro-Bible Hill
PC: Hughie MacIsaac
Liberal: Bob Hagell
NDP: Lenore Zann
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Halifax Regional Municipality

Bedford
PC: Len Goucher - incumbent
Liberal: Kelly Regan
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup


Eastern Shore
PC: Bill Dooks - incumbent
Liberal: Loretta Halleran
NDP: Sid Prest
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Halifax Atlantic
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Michele Raymond - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville
PC: Barry Barnet - incumbent
Liberal: Patrick Doyle
NDP: Mat Whynott
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Preston
PC: unknown
Liberal: Keith Colwell - incumbent
NDP: Janet Sutcliffe
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


Sackville-Cobequid
PC: unknown
Liberal: Scott Hemming
NDP: Dave Wilson - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Timberlea-Prospect
PC: Gina Byrne
Liberal: Lisa Mullin
NDP: Bill Estabrooks - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank
PC: Gary Hines
Liberal: Bill Horne
NDP: Percy Paris - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Chebucto
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Howard Epstein - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Citadel
PC: Ted Larsen
Liberal: Gerry Walsh
NDP: Leonard Preyra - incumbent
Grn: Ryan Watson

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Clayton Park
PC: Debbie Hum
Liberal: Diana Whalen - incumbent
NDP: Linda Power
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


Halifax Fairview
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Graham Steele - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Needham
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Maureen MacDonald - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Cole Harbour
PC: unknown
Liberal: Tony Ince
NDP: Darrell Dexter - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Becky Kent - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Dartmouth East
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Joan Massey - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Dartmouth North
PC: unknown
Liberal: Jim Smith
NDP: Trevor Zinck - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Dartmouth South-Portland Valley
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Marilyn More - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold

Nova Scotia Election Prediction 29/04/09

With the Nova Scotia election imminent, I thought I'd offer an initial prediction. The candidates listed are borrowed from nodice. I may change it as the election proceeds, but for now here it is, firstly the Cape Breton region:

Cape Breton Regional Municipality

Cape Breton West
PC: Alfie MacLeod - incumbent
Lib: Josephine Kennedy
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC retain


Inverness
PC: Rodney MacDonald - incumbent
Liberal: Shaun Bennett
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC retain


Richmond
PC: John Greene
Liberal: Michel Samson - incumbent
NDP: Unknown
Grn: Unknown

Prediction: Liberal retain


Victoria-The Lakes
PC: Keith Bain - incumbent
Liberal: Gerald Sampson
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup


Cape Breton Centre
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Frank Corbett - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP retain


Cape Breton North
PC: Cecil Clarke - incumbent
Liberal: Russell MacDonald
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup


Cape Breton Nova
PC: unknown
Liberal: Don Morrison
NDP: Gordie Gosse - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP retain


Cape Breton South
PC: unknown
Liberal: Manning MacDonald - incumbent
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal retain


Glace Bay
PC: unknown
Liberal: Dave Wilson - incumbent
NDP: Myrtle Campbell
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal retain

Ruby Gloom and Bill Casey

So, I injured my back and got reprimanded at work for missing three days. So, understandably, I've been somewhat distracted. However, far from abandoning this blog, I simply took a few days off.

To ease back in to things, I thought I'd give mention about one of my favorite TV shows; one that happens to be a children's show: Ruby Gloom. The theme song is addictive and, far from being a typical kid's show, it's definitely one of the more modern attempts by producers to make childrens' shows that are watchable by adults. This one has a very clear Gothic theme to it, with characters like "Skullboy", "Doom Kitty", and, my personal favorite, "Misery". I think that I enjoy this show more than my daughter does, actually.

Anyway, onto the other thing that I wanted to talk about...

Bill Casey, the PC/Conservative/Independent Member of Parliament for Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, has resigned his seat to take another job which leaves his seat open. Criticized by some, praised by many and respected by most, Casey is one of the few non-Liberal MP's that I had a great deal of respect for. Unlike the spineless toads in the Nova Scotia Conservative caucus, read: Peter MacKay, Casey stood up for his home and got kicked out for it by his party. I lived for a couple of years in his riding and always found him to be a fair and decent man.

The question now arises about who will win his seat in the byelection (or general election, whichever comes first)? Traditionally, the seat has been blue, with the only exception in my lifetime being 1993 during the PC Party collapse when Diane Brushett won it for the ~ 4 years until the 1997 election. Despite the last election resulting in the Liberal candidate losing her deposit, I firmly believe that the next MP that C-C-MV gets will be a Liberal for the simple reason that nobody associated with Stephen Harper will get elected in the riding formerly occupied by the man who was fired by the Conservative Party for believing in Nova Scotia. And the NDP just doesn't click with most people in the riding outside of, possibly, the Truro area.

But which will come first: A byelection or a general election? And will the results be different with one versus another?

That's all for now. Next post will be my prediction for the Nova Scotia election.

Never Forget

Yesterday was Yom Hashoah - Holocaust Memorial Day - which is a day to remember an event that many in this world still deny even happened. They deny that ~ 6,000,000 Jews were brutally murdered for no other reason than that they were Jewish. As a Jew, the day bears special significance to me because one of my great grandfathers was from Poland and, while he managed to move to Canada prior to WWII starting, many in his family were not so lucky. Thus, I too suffer the fate of having members of my family lost to the brutality of Hitler's racist actions.

I'd like to address a few concerns about the Holocaust from my perspective that I've heard in the lead-up to yesterday, and indeed every year in regard to this...

Firstly, that Jews need to "get over it." Now, in some regard, I believe some Jews have taken matters too far in regard to some aspects of the Holocaust, namely the continued animosity toward Germany. Many Jews refuse to travel to Germany, buy German cars or even any German-made or originated products and consider Germany synonomous with hatred and racism. I believe that this is unneccesary as Germany has accepted full responsibility for its history and taken steps to ensure it doesn't happen again. Nazi symbols, even those used in historical context, are banned, as is goose-stepping or any images linked to Hitler. And every year around this time, the leader of Germany offers a heartfelt apology to all of those affected by the Holocaust. Modern Germany is not to blame for the Holocaust anymore than the modern United States is to blame for the Trail of Tears.

However, I believe that the yearly apology from Germany and the continued reading of the names, around the world, of those who died during the Holocaust is important. It's important that we never forget what happened before and during the Holocaust. We must never forget the 6,000,000 Jews who died. We must never forget what Adolf Hitler did to my family and the families of every Jew who lost somebody. We must never forget, because if we forget, then it may happen again.

Secondly, the concern that Jews are not the only ones who Hitler killed. Yes, it is true that Jews were not the only ones who died in the camps. Jehovah's Witnesses died, Masons died, Quakers died, homosexuals died. Basically, anybody who didn't fit into Hitler's mold of what a person should look and act like stood the chance of being rounded up and slaughtered. However, one cannot deny that the biggest target of the Holocaust - the original target of the Final Solution - were the Jews.

Thirdly, that too much attention is put on the events during WWII regarding the Holocaust, that we forget that other Holocausts happened and are happening in the world. A person once asked me why they should care about the Holocaust that killed 6,000,000 Jews, when the world doesn't have a special day to remember the Tutsi who were killed during the Rwandan genocide? Or, indeed, the continued genocide that happens in Darfur?

Without seeming callous, I'd like to respond by stating that the German Holocaust was more significant, at least in the eyes of the world, in that it happened in a Western nation that was considered civilized. Other reasons abound, I'm sure, but I don't believe it's any less significant, really, and the world should be ashamed of themselves for allowing it to happen in the world then and now. Just because it's in Africa, it doesn't make it any less important!

Poll puts Liberals over 6 points ahead

Happy Friday!

Oh shut up!

So, after weeks of sniffing around Ignatieff and going through his trash, desperate to find something to attack him on, the Opposition finally caught him saying that he'd consider raising taxes in order to break us out of deficit.

Harper and the blue crew practically kills themselves, trying to blurt out as many incredulous-sounding phrases, condemning this horrific turn of events. Even Jack Layton, even more desperate for an edge to save his drowning party, says that tax hikes are the "wrong approach" to eliminating deficits.

So, umm...can anybody tell me what the problem here is?

First off, Harper is the last person who should be criticizing Ignatieff for trying to come up with ideas, considering his idiotic financial planning (read: GST cut) helped to get us into this mess to begin with. Secondly, Jack Layton can try and paint a pretty picture all he wants, because Canadians know nobody will ever actually elect his party to Government.

I think Michael said it best when he said:

No honest politician, faced with an $80-billion deficit, will take anything
off the table because Canadians do not want, they're allergic to, long-term
structural deficits

A few tidbits

Haha, very funny! It ain't easy living in a city that got hit by a brutal winter, followed by a number of freeze and thaw's!

In more local news, Halifax City Council approved a new plan to fund public transit, whereby residents in mobile homes and apartment complexes (*cough*low income*cough*) would have to pay more property taxes than those in waterfront homes and houses with single apartments (*cough*middle and upper-income*cough*). The logic, apparently, is that people who live in mobile homes and apartment complexes are more likely to ride the bus than those who live on pristine lakes with glasses of sherry in their hands. Legitimately, many of the city councillors who voted against this ludicrous bill are those who represent lower income areas. Councillor Jim Smith (Albro Lake-Harbourview), whom I can personally attest is a great guy and also the NS Liberal Party candidate for Dartmouth North in the upcoming election, represents a low-income district and voted against it after saying some sensible words on its silliness. Go Jim!

Moving onto more national news, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives recently concluded a study showing that the average family in Canada would be driven to the poor-house, if they had to pay for the services that the average Canadian recieves for free, i.e. primary education, healthcare, etc. As such, Canadians need to shut up about how high are taxes are and just accept that those taxes pay for the services that so many Canadians take for granted. To paraphrase something I read once, taxes are the things to pay to recieve the services that we need. As for me, I get $200+ taken off each paycheque to go toward federal taxes - money I don't even get back in April due to an outstanding Student Loan - and it hurts every two weeks when I see it on my stub. On the other hand, I can see a doctor anytime I want and the public services that myself and my family recieve are substantially less due to those $200+ that I "donate" every two weeks. So, would it be better to keep my $200 and have to pay it out everytime I go to the hospital? I doubt it.

Finally, this is set to be the year of elections. BC's is underway, my own Nova Scotia's is set to be called soon. Heck, we might even see another general election by the fall. Should be fun. As a former BC resident, my pick right now is on another BCLiberal majority, based solely on the fact that Carole James just isn't a very strong leader. Also, Campbell has been doing okay for himself. In Nova Scotia, the PC Government is in save-the-furniture mode, as poll numbers show the extreme liklihood of an NDP Government (the first ever east of Ontario) and the PC's in 3rd party status if they don't pull up their socks soon. And no, Premier MacDonald, pulling up your socks doesn't mean emptying the provincial coffers in an attempt to bribe us!

Casino workers laid off

More than a dozen jobs have been lost in Nova Scotia, effective immediately, at the Casino Nova Scotia locations in both Halifax and Sydney due to lack of business stemming from the sour economy. Now, granted, these may not have the same "heartstrings" reaction to some people as a mill closing or nurse layoffs, but you have to consider the fact that many people who work at the Casinos are low-income young people or students working part-time. Granted, it's "dozens of jobs lost" instead of the "hundreds" or "thousands" we've heard lately, but it's a sign of the times in a province that has a lot less reserves to keep it from crisis than a province like Ontario. And don't think more jobs aren't being lost constantly.

Just a quick word on Kaylee

Her parents want to take the spotlight off of her, but I just wanted to say something short and quick about baby Kaylee.

I'm not typically one for stories that snopes.com has coined "glurge" however this story really touched me. Initially, due to the parents' desire to help bring joy to the parents of another sick baby by enduring the sadness of losing their own child, then due to the sheer will to live of baby Kaylee, who defied all the doctors and their medical understanding by going from hopeless to "stable and mostly breathing on her own."

What a little fighter! She's lucky to have parents who have remained strong and have held themselves together during what must be a very emotional time for them.

I wish them all the best.

"Can I use biodegradable plastic bags in my Green Bin?"

I work for the city of Halifax, in close proximity to the city's waste disposal system. Therefore, I get a lot of questions about things that include separation of waste products into either garbage, recyclables or compostables. One of the most frequent questions asked is whether plastic bags labeled as "compostable" or "biodegradable" are okay to put in your Green Bin (which is where your organics and compostables are supposed to go). My answer is always no, which angers many people who feel that it's more convienient to use plastic bags to place all of their food waste into, especially in the summer months when organics can get somewhat disgusting when left out in the hot sun for days at a time, especially if left out loose.

Our local paper, the Chronicle Herald, finally opted to address the issue with a very good article today that explains the problem. If your cities employ a similar program, then this may apply to you as well.

So, in conclusion, place your compostables in a boxboard container, such as an empty cereal box (minus the lining of course), a shoe box or even wrap it up in paper towel.

God Save the Queen

Well, it's that time again.

It's the time when the small, but annoying republican movement in Canada starts grumbling about abolishing the Canadian monarchy and creating a "Canadian Head of State" to replace it. I think the last sentence kind of provides the most clear argument against that, namely that Her Majesty's role for us is, in fact, as the Queen of Canada. See the pretty picture? Notice the flag she's standing next to? Read what's on the bottom?

Now, in case you haven't figured it out at this point, I'm a strong Monarchist; always have been. I have a great appreciation for the dignity and tradition that Canada's system as a Constitutional Monarchy brings to it. I believe that having the Queen as our head of state and being part of the British Commonwealth has done well for us over the years and should not change. In fact, I would even like to see a stronger role for the Crown in Canada, for example having school children sing "God Save the Queen" in addition to "Oh Canada" every morning. Also, I'd like to see the day of Her Majesty's coronation (June 2nd) honoured in some way, even if just rolled into the day that we already celebrate her birthday and Victoria Day. And I believe Parliament should make it a point of having a member of the Royal Family visit Canada each year, even if it's Prince Edward or Princess Anne. But perhaps that's just me.

I think, overall, republican sentiment in Canada is well-meaning, but misguided and filled with incorrect facts. The Queen is as much our Queen as she is Australia's Queen, Jamaica's Queen, New Zealand's Queen, Bermuda's Queen, Barbados' Queen, and the Queen of every other Commonwealth Nation, plus her role doesn't cost Canada any money unless she's currently in Canada doing royal duties. Even if you're not as rabid a royalist as I am, surely it's easy to see that, from a historical perspective and one that serves to provide the largest difference between us and our southern neighbours, keeping ourselves a Constitutional Monarchy is beneficial.

And lately, or perhaps not so lately, we have the republicans, faced with overwhelming odds against them, saying that they'll tolerate the monarchy under Queen Elizabeth II, but that we should end it with her. This, to me, is just a sneaky way of them getting more people over to their side, because as much as Her Majesty is a beloved, respectable and dignified monarch, it is not her person that forms Canada's head of state but her title. When she passes on and Charles takes her place as King Charles III (or, as speculated, King George VII since Kings Charles I and II weren't exactly the most beloved of monarchs), I'm confident he'll elicit the same respect that his mother did. And, God Willing, when William ascends he will as well.

Shameless plug

In case any of the readers discovering this new, exciting and innovative blog want to keep up with me on Twitter, it'll be http://twitter.com/brianjappel

Don't everybody add me at once. *snicker*

Harper fiddles while the job market burns down

So, let me get this straight...

First, there was no recession. Then, we got hit by it like a bullet train, but Harper said it was okay, because we'd emerge quickly from it.

So, Statscan is now reporting job loss the likes of which Canada hasn't seen since the early 80's, and Harper is still singing "Don't Worry, Be Happy."?

Could somebody please tell me when the man is going to take off the rose-coloured glasses and actually do something about this crisis?

Apology accepted

That didn't take long, did it?

“They all understand that the behaviour of yesterday will not be tolerated by me as leader of this party and it does not reflect who I am as a person and the values that I brought to public life or to those of leading my life in the riding of Annapolis and the community of Annapolis County,”

Well said, Mr. McNeil. Now, let's move on...

Simply tasteless

As fellow Liblogger, BigCityLib, has already stated, I think that it's absolutely childish and tasteless that the Nova Scotia Liberals would be releasing nude pictures of Truro-Bible Hill NDP candidate and actress, Lenore Zann, to the media in an attempt to smear her for some reason.

I like Stephen McNeil, believing him to be the best of the three in terms of who would make the best Premier of Nova Scotia, but this was simply out of order and Mr. McNeil should apologize to both Mr. Dexter and the NDP for the portrayal of their candidate, and to Nova Scotians for stooping to this level.

My feelings on Iggy

I've been searching my brain for something to write about for my first post. I read a bunch of other first posts on various blogs, especially political blogs, and came to the conclusion that my first post would be about the Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and the next Prime Minister - which, given the events of late seems much more based in reality instead of simply hope - Michael Ignatieff.

I'm not as worldly as I would like, plus I guess I'm somewhat young, as I had never heard of Michael prior to him running in the 2006 general election. After that, especially with all the buzz surrounding the "prodigal son" returning, I did my homework. During the leadership race following the Liberal loss, I can honestly say that I wasn't impressed and even a bit frightened by Ignatieff and his views. Then there was this and the other assorted missteps by him, and my confidence was firmly placed behind Bob Rae.

Fast-forward a few years later, and you can imagine my scepticism when Michael Ignatieff steamrollered over my fellow Atlantic Canadian, Dominic LeBlanc, and my pick once again at that time, Bob Rae, on his way to be crowned in Vancouver this November. Still, I vowed to be a good little Liberal soldier and give the guy a chance.

Well, I'm pleased to say that I was pleasantly surprised. Stephane Dion is a good man, with a lot of great ideas. But even the most ardent Liberal could see that the party was going nowhere fast with him. Michael Ignatieff, on the other hand, consolidated his support, presented himself as the canny intellectual that he is and left Harper looking amateurish by comparison. The polls show growth for the Grits and our fundraising numbers are looking better each day. It's quite a turnaround for me, really, considering that I had a discussion not two years ago with other Liberal colleagues about the danger that Ignatieff would do to our country.

Overall, the man is an amazing politician, considering his lack of experience, and will make a great Prime Minister.

And that's for ding dang!