More Predictions

Central and North Nova Scotia

Antigonish
PC: Angus MacIsaac - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Maurice Smith
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup



Guysborough-Sheet Harbour
PC: Ron Chisholm - incumbent
Liberal: Lloyd Hines
NDP: Jim Boudreau
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Pictou Centre
PC: Pat Dunn - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Ross Landry
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC hold


Pictou East
PC: J. Ed MacDonald
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Clarrie MacKinnon - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold



Pictou West
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Charlie Parker - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
PC: Brooke Taylor - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Gary Burrill
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC Hold


Colchester North
PC: Karen Casey - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC Hold


Cumberland North
PC: Keith Hunter
Liberal: Brent Noiles
NDP: Brian Skabar
Grn: unknown
Ind: Ernest Fage - incumbent

Prediction: PC pickup


Cumberland South
PC: Murray Scott - incumbent
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Brian Tabor
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC hold (safest PC seat in the province)


Truro-Bible Hill
PC: Hughie MacIsaac
Liberal: Bob Hagell
NDP: Lenore Zann
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Halifax Regional Municipality

Bedford
PC: Len Goucher - incumbent
Liberal: Kelly Regan
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup


Eastern Shore
PC: Bill Dooks - incumbent
Liberal: Loretta Halleran
NDP: Sid Prest
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Halifax Atlantic
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Michele Raymond - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville
PC: Barry Barnet - incumbent
Liberal: Patrick Doyle
NDP: Mat Whynott
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP pickup


Preston
PC: unknown
Liberal: Keith Colwell - incumbent
NDP: Janet Sutcliffe
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


Sackville-Cobequid
PC: unknown
Liberal: Scott Hemming
NDP: Dave Wilson - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Timberlea-Prospect
PC: Gina Byrne
Liberal: Lisa Mullin
NDP: Bill Estabrooks - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank
PC: Gary Hines
Liberal: Bill Horne
NDP: Percy Paris - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Chebucto
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Howard Epstein - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Citadel
PC: Ted Larsen
Liberal: Gerry Walsh
NDP: Leonard Preyra - incumbent
Grn: Ryan Watson

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Clayton Park
PC: Debbie Hum
Liberal: Diana Whalen - incumbent
NDP: Linda Power
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal hold


Halifax Fairview
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Graham Steele - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Halifax Needham
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Maureen MacDonald - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Cole Harbour
PC: unknown
Liberal: Tony Ince
NDP: Darrell Dexter - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Becky Kent - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Dartmouth East
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Joan Massey - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Dartmouth North
PC: unknown
Liberal: Jim Smith
NDP: Trevor Zinck - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold


Dartmouth South-Portland Valley
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Marilyn More - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP hold

Nova Scotia Election Prediction 29/04/09

With the Nova Scotia election imminent, I thought I'd offer an initial prediction. The candidates listed are borrowed from nodice. I may change it as the election proceeds, but for now here it is, firstly the Cape Breton region:

Cape Breton Regional Municipality

Cape Breton West
PC: Alfie MacLeod - incumbent
Lib: Josephine Kennedy
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC retain


Inverness
PC: Rodney MacDonald - incumbent
Liberal: Shaun Bennett
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: PC retain


Richmond
PC: John Greene
Liberal: Michel Samson - incumbent
NDP: Unknown
Grn: Unknown

Prediction: Liberal retain


Victoria-The Lakes
PC: Keith Bain - incumbent
Liberal: Gerald Sampson
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup


Cape Breton Centre
PC: unknown
Liberal: unknown
NDP: Frank Corbett - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP retain


Cape Breton North
PC: Cecil Clarke - incumbent
Liberal: Russell MacDonald
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal pickup


Cape Breton Nova
PC: unknown
Liberal: Don Morrison
NDP: Gordie Gosse - incumbent
Grn: unknown

Prediction: NDP retain


Cape Breton South
PC: unknown
Liberal: Manning MacDonald - incumbent
NDP: unknown
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal retain


Glace Bay
PC: unknown
Liberal: Dave Wilson - incumbent
NDP: Myrtle Campbell
Grn: unknown

Prediction: Liberal retain

Ruby Gloom and Bill Casey

So, I injured my back and got reprimanded at work for missing three days. So, understandably, I've been somewhat distracted. However, far from abandoning this blog, I simply took a few days off.

To ease back in to things, I thought I'd give mention about one of my favorite TV shows; one that happens to be a children's show: Ruby Gloom. The theme song is addictive and, far from being a typical kid's show, it's definitely one of the more modern attempts by producers to make childrens' shows that are watchable by adults. This one has a very clear Gothic theme to it, with characters like "Skullboy", "Doom Kitty", and, my personal favorite, "Misery". I think that I enjoy this show more than my daughter does, actually.

Anyway, onto the other thing that I wanted to talk about...

Bill Casey, the PC/Conservative/Independent Member of Parliament for Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, has resigned his seat to take another job which leaves his seat open. Criticized by some, praised by many and respected by most, Casey is one of the few non-Liberal MP's that I had a great deal of respect for. Unlike the spineless toads in the Nova Scotia Conservative caucus, read: Peter MacKay, Casey stood up for his home and got kicked out for it by his party. I lived for a couple of years in his riding and always found him to be a fair and decent man.

The question now arises about who will win his seat in the byelection (or general election, whichever comes first)? Traditionally, the seat has been blue, with the only exception in my lifetime being 1993 during the PC Party collapse when Diane Brushett won it for the ~ 4 years until the 1997 election. Despite the last election resulting in the Liberal candidate losing her deposit, I firmly believe that the next MP that C-C-MV gets will be a Liberal for the simple reason that nobody associated with Stephen Harper will get elected in the riding formerly occupied by the man who was fired by the Conservative Party for believing in Nova Scotia. And the NDP just doesn't click with most people in the riding outside of, possibly, the Truro area.

But which will come first: A byelection or a general election? And will the results be different with one versus another?

That's all for now. Next post will be my prediction for the Nova Scotia election.

Never Forget

Yesterday was Yom Hashoah - Holocaust Memorial Day - which is a day to remember an event that many in this world still deny even happened. They deny that ~ 6,000,000 Jews were brutally murdered for no other reason than that they were Jewish. As a Jew, the day bears special significance to me because one of my great grandfathers was from Poland and, while he managed to move to Canada prior to WWII starting, many in his family were not so lucky. Thus, I too suffer the fate of having members of my family lost to the brutality of Hitler's racist actions.

I'd like to address a few concerns about the Holocaust from my perspective that I've heard in the lead-up to yesterday, and indeed every year in regard to this...

Firstly, that Jews need to "get over it." Now, in some regard, I believe some Jews have taken matters too far in regard to some aspects of the Holocaust, namely the continued animosity toward Germany. Many Jews refuse to travel to Germany, buy German cars or even any German-made or originated products and consider Germany synonomous with hatred and racism. I believe that this is unneccesary as Germany has accepted full responsibility for its history and taken steps to ensure it doesn't happen again. Nazi symbols, even those used in historical context, are banned, as is goose-stepping or any images linked to Hitler. And every year around this time, the leader of Germany offers a heartfelt apology to all of those affected by the Holocaust. Modern Germany is not to blame for the Holocaust anymore than the modern United States is to blame for the Trail of Tears.

However, I believe that the yearly apology from Germany and the continued reading of the names, around the world, of those who died during the Holocaust is important. It's important that we never forget what happened before and during the Holocaust. We must never forget the 6,000,000 Jews who died. We must never forget what Adolf Hitler did to my family and the families of every Jew who lost somebody. We must never forget, because if we forget, then it may happen again.

Secondly, the concern that Jews are not the only ones who Hitler killed. Yes, it is true that Jews were not the only ones who died in the camps. Jehovah's Witnesses died, Masons died, Quakers died, homosexuals died. Basically, anybody who didn't fit into Hitler's mold of what a person should look and act like stood the chance of being rounded up and slaughtered. However, one cannot deny that the biggest target of the Holocaust - the original target of the Final Solution - were the Jews.

Thirdly, that too much attention is put on the events during WWII regarding the Holocaust, that we forget that other Holocausts happened and are happening in the world. A person once asked me why they should care about the Holocaust that killed 6,000,000 Jews, when the world doesn't have a special day to remember the Tutsi who were killed during the Rwandan genocide? Or, indeed, the continued genocide that happens in Darfur?

Without seeming callous, I'd like to respond by stating that the German Holocaust was more significant, at least in the eyes of the world, in that it happened in a Western nation that was considered civilized. Other reasons abound, I'm sure, but I don't believe it's any less significant, really, and the world should be ashamed of themselves for allowing it to happen in the world then and now. Just because it's in Africa, it doesn't make it any less important!

Poll puts Liberals over 6 points ahead

Happy Friday!

Oh shut up!

So, after weeks of sniffing around Ignatieff and going through his trash, desperate to find something to attack him on, the Opposition finally caught him saying that he'd consider raising taxes in order to break us out of deficit.

Harper and the blue crew practically kills themselves, trying to blurt out as many incredulous-sounding phrases, condemning this horrific turn of events. Even Jack Layton, even more desperate for an edge to save his drowning party, says that tax hikes are the "wrong approach" to eliminating deficits.

So, umm...can anybody tell me what the problem here is?

First off, Harper is the last person who should be criticizing Ignatieff for trying to come up with ideas, considering his idiotic financial planning (read: GST cut) helped to get us into this mess to begin with. Secondly, Jack Layton can try and paint a pretty picture all he wants, because Canadians know nobody will ever actually elect his party to Government.

I think Michael said it best when he said:

No honest politician, faced with an $80-billion deficit, will take anything
off the table because Canadians do not want, they're allergic to, long-term
structural deficits

A few tidbits

Haha, very funny! It ain't easy living in a city that got hit by a brutal winter, followed by a number of freeze and thaw's!

In more local news, Halifax City Council approved a new plan to fund public transit, whereby residents in mobile homes and apartment complexes (*cough*low income*cough*) would have to pay more property taxes than those in waterfront homes and houses with single apartments (*cough*middle and upper-income*cough*). The logic, apparently, is that people who live in mobile homes and apartment complexes are more likely to ride the bus than those who live on pristine lakes with glasses of sherry in their hands. Legitimately, many of the city councillors who voted against this ludicrous bill are those who represent lower income areas. Councillor Jim Smith (Albro Lake-Harbourview), whom I can personally attest is a great guy and also the NS Liberal Party candidate for Dartmouth North in the upcoming election, represents a low-income district and voted against it after saying some sensible words on its silliness. Go Jim!

Moving onto more national news, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives recently concluded a study showing that the average family in Canada would be driven to the poor-house, if they had to pay for the services that the average Canadian recieves for free, i.e. primary education, healthcare, etc. As such, Canadians need to shut up about how high are taxes are and just accept that those taxes pay for the services that so many Canadians take for granted. To paraphrase something I read once, taxes are the things to pay to recieve the services that we need. As for me, I get $200+ taken off each paycheque to go toward federal taxes - money I don't even get back in April due to an outstanding Student Loan - and it hurts every two weeks when I see it on my stub. On the other hand, I can see a doctor anytime I want and the public services that myself and my family recieve are substantially less due to those $200+ that I "donate" every two weeks. So, would it be better to keep my $200 and have to pay it out everytime I go to the hospital? I doubt it.

Finally, this is set to be the year of elections. BC's is underway, my own Nova Scotia's is set to be called soon. Heck, we might even see another general election by the fall. Should be fun. As a former BC resident, my pick right now is on another BCLiberal majority, based solely on the fact that Carole James just isn't a very strong leader. Also, Campbell has been doing okay for himself. In Nova Scotia, the PC Government is in save-the-furniture mode, as poll numbers show the extreme liklihood of an NDP Government (the first ever east of Ontario) and the PC's in 3rd party status if they don't pull up their socks soon. And no, Premier MacDonald, pulling up your socks doesn't mean emptying the provincial coffers in an attempt to bribe us!

Casino workers laid off

More than a dozen jobs have been lost in Nova Scotia, effective immediately, at the Casino Nova Scotia locations in both Halifax and Sydney due to lack of business stemming from the sour economy. Now, granted, these may not have the same "heartstrings" reaction to some people as a mill closing or nurse layoffs, but you have to consider the fact that many people who work at the Casinos are low-income young people or students working part-time. Granted, it's "dozens of jobs lost" instead of the "hundreds" or "thousands" we've heard lately, but it's a sign of the times in a province that has a lot less reserves to keep it from crisis than a province like Ontario. And don't think more jobs aren't being lost constantly.

Just a quick word on Kaylee

Her parents want to take the spotlight off of her, but I just wanted to say something short and quick about baby Kaylee.

I'm not typically one for stories that snopes.com has coined "glurge" however this story really touched me. Initially, due to the parents' desire to help bring joy to the parents of another sick baby by enduring the sadness of losing their own child, then due to the sheer will to live of baby Kaylee, who defied all the doctors and their medical understanding by going from hopeless to "stable and mostly breathing on her own."

What a little fighter! She's lucky to have parents who have remained strong and have held themselves together during what must be a very emotional time for them.

I wish them all the best.

"Can I use biodegradable plastic bags in my Green Bin?"

I work for the city of Halifax, in close proximity to the city's waste disposal system. Therefore, I get a lot of questions about things that include separation of waste products into either garbage, recyclables or compostables. One of the most frequent questions asked is whether plastic bags labeled as "compostable" or "biodegradable" are okay to put in your Green Bin (which is where your organics and compostables are supposed to go). My answer is always no, which angers many people who feel that it's more convienient to use plastic bags to place all of their food waste into, especially in the summer months when organics can get somewhat disgusting when left out in the hot sun for days at a time, especially if left out loose.

Our local paper, the Chronicle Herald, finally opted to address the issue with a very good article today that explains the problem. If your cities employ a similar program, then this may apply to you as well.

So, in conclusion, place your compostables in a boxboard container, such as an empty cereal box (minus the lining of course), a shoe box or even wrap it up in paper towel.

God Save the Queen

Well, it's that time again.

It's the time when the small, but annoying republican movement in Canada starts grumbling about abolishing the Canadian monarchy and creating a "Canadian Head of State" to replace it. I think the last sentence kind of provides the most clear argument against that, namely that Her Majesty's role for us is, in fact, as the Queen of Canada. See the pretty picture? Notice the flag she's standing next to? Read what's on the bottom?

Now, in case you haven't figured it out at this point, I'm a strong Monarchist; always have been. I have a great appreciation for the dignity and tradition that Canada's system as a Constitutional Monarchy brings to it. I believe that having the Queen as our head of state and being part of the British Commonwealth has done well for us over the years and should not change. In fact, I would even like to see a stronger role for the Crown in Canada, for example having school children sing "God Save the Queen" in addition to "Oh Canada" every morning. Also, I'd like to see the day of Her Majesty's coronation (June 2nd) honoured in some way, even if just rolled into the day that we already celebrate her birthday and Victoria Day. And I believe Parliament should make it a point of having a member of the Royal Family visit Canada each year, even if it's Prince Edward or Princess Anne. But perhaps that's just me.

I think, overall, republican sentiment in Canada is well-meaning, but misguided and filled with incorrect facts. The Queen is as much our Queen as she is Australia's Queen, Jamaica's Queen, New Zealand's Queen, Bermuda's Queen, Barbados' Queen, and the Queen of every other Commonwealth Nation, plus her role doesn't cost Canada any money unless she's currently in Canada doing royal duties. Even if you're not as rabid a royalist as I am, surely it's easy to see that, from a historical perspective and one that serves to provide the largest difference between us and our southern neighbours, keeping ourselves a Constitutional Monarchy is beneficial.

And lately, or perhaps not so lately, we have the republicans, faced with overwhelming odds against them, saying that they'll tolerate the monarchy under Queen Elizabeth II, but that we should end it with her. This, to me, is just a sneaky way of them getting more people over to their side, because as much as Her Majesty is a beloved, respectable and dignified monarch, it is not her person that forms Canada's head of state but her title. When she passes on and Charles takes her place as King Charles III (or, as speculated, King George VII since Kings Charles I and II weren't exactly the most beloved of monarchs), I'm confident he'll elicit the same respect that his mother did. And, God Willing, when William ascends he will as well.

Shameless plug

In case any of the readers discovering this new, exciting and innovative blog want to keep up with me on Twitter, it'll be http://twitter.com/brianjappel

Don't everybody add me at once. *snicker*

Harper fiddles while the job market burns down

So, let me get this straight...

First, there was no recession. Then, we got hit by it like a bullet train, but Harper said it was okay, because we'd emerge quickly from it.

So, Statscan is now reporting job loss the likes of which Canada hasn't seen since the early 80's, and Harper is still singing "Don't Worry, Be Happy."?

Could somebody please tell me when the man is going to take off the rose-coloured glasses and actually do something about this crisis?

Apology accepted

That didn't take long, did it?

“They all understand that the behaviour of yesterday will not be tolerated by me as leader of this party and it does not reflect who I am as a person and the values that I brought to public life or to those of leading my life in the riding of Annapolis and the community of Annapolis County,”

Well said, Mr. McNeil. Now, let's move on...

Simply tasteless

As fellow Liblogger, BigCityLib, has already stated, I think that it's absolutely childish and tasteless that the Nova Scotia Liberals would be releasing nude pictures of Truro-Bible Hill NDP candidate and actress, Lenore Zann, to the media in an attempt to smear her for some reason.

I like Stephen McNeil, believing him to be the best of the three in terms of who would make the best Premier of Nova Scotia, but this was simply out of order and Mr. McNeil should apologize to both Mr. Dexter and the NDP for the portrayal of their candidate, and to Nova Scotians for stooping to this level.

My feelings on Iggy

I've been searching my brain for something to write about for my first post. I read a bunch of other first posts on various blogs, especially political blogs, and came to the conclusion that my first post would be about the Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and the next Prime Minister - which, given the events of late seems much more based in reality instead of simply hope - Michael Ignatieff.

I'm not as worldly as I would like, plus I guess I'm somewhat young, as I had never heard of Michael prior to him running in the 2006 general election. After that, especially with all the buzz surrounding the "prodigal son" returning, I did my homework. During the leadership race following the Liberal loss, I can honestly say that I wasn't impressed and even a bit frightened by Ignatieff and his views. Then there was this and the other assorted missteps by him, and my confidence was firmly placed behind Bob Rae.

Fast-forward a few years later, and you can imagine my scepticism when Michael Ignatieff steamrollered over my fellow Atlantic Canadian, Dominic LeBlanc, and my pick once again at that time, Bob Rae, on his way to be crowned in Vancouver this November. Still, I vowed to be a good little Liberal soldier and give the guy a chance.

Well, I'm pleased to say that I was pleasantly surprised. Stephane Dion is a good man, with a lot of great ideas. But even the most ardent Liberal could see that the party was going nowhere fast with him. Michael Ignatieff, on the other hand, consolidated his support, presented himself as the canny intellectual that he is and left Harper looking amateurish by comparison. The polls show growth for the Grits and our fundraising numbers are looking better each day. It's quite a turnaround for me, really, considering that I had a discussion not two years ago with other Liberal colleagues about the danger that Ignatieff would do to our country.

Overall, the man is an amazing politician, considering his lack of experience, and will make a great Prime Minister.

And that's for ding dang!